A fit of (oil) peak - The Boston Globe

By Chip Giller and David Roberts | September 1, 2005

IT'S THE END of the world as we know it, and we feel fine.

Let us explain.

The last few months have seen a surge of stories on so-called "peak oil." That's the moment when we're pulling as much oil out of the ground as we'll ever be able to pump. Supply hits its peak and begins an inexorable decline, regardless of demand. Hurricane Katrina has shown what kind of damage short-term supply disruptions can do; peak oil represents long-term and permanent supply disruption.

But peak oil is not a matter of economics or politics. It's cold, hard geology.

Nobody knows for sure when the peak will occur. Estimates range from a few years ago to 50 years hence. But expert consensus is closing in on the next five to 15 years.

This isn't a Y2K bug situation; the exact moment we hit the peak isn't that important. What really matters is how we handle the descent. The difficulty it poses is incredibly complex but simply stated: Our entire economy hinges on the availability of cheap oil.

Think about food and transport. Our agricultural system depends on petroleum-based fertilizers and petro-fuel to haul the resulting food over vast distances. And oil powers our transportation system -- not just personal vehicles, but city buses, long-haul trucks, airplanes, and ocean freighters.
Right now, the price of a barrel of oil is hovering around $70. But what's going to happen when it hits $80? $100? $200? Opinions are sharply divided.


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